After being hit by four hurricanes in 380 days, our real estate market was abandoned by buyers, providing the inevitable correction to the “irrational exuberance” that had been created by recent but unsustainable galloping appreciation. Sellers kept the faith through the downturn, and an additional 1,500 properties came to market despite the dearth of sales. Interest has started up again, but sales are still markedly depressed. As of today, we have just over 6,000 properties on the market within south Walton County, south of Freeport. And in that area, there are just over 3,000 Realtors currently active, according to the Emerald Coast Association of Realtors.

To assuage frustration, it may be useful to keep in mind a few lessons we learned from Hurricane Opal in 1995. First, and perhaps most important, it took a full 12 months following that hurricane for interest in our market to return. According to the Haas Institute analyses of Northwest Florida’s economy after Opal, and South Florida’s economy after Hurricane Andrew, it took a full 16-20 months for the economy to return to normalcy.

In the meantime, it is worth reflecting on the fact that the two most important demographic trends of the early 21st century have been baby boomer retirement and movement to the coast. It is unlikely that either of these two trends will diminish over the long term. Two worrisome developments, increasing interest rates and energy prices, have abated, and should be internalized in consumers’ decision making for the foreseeable future. In other words, while real estate sales should slowly return, precluding a large fall in coastal housing and land prices, it is likely that we will experience an incremental shift in investors’ interest to less expensive markets. This portends a flattening of the extraordinary price appreciation we have experienced in the recent past, and even declines in some prices by sellers who cannot wait out the market return. But, for those with patience and staying power, the best is yet to come.